Walter Fricke shares that decision making requires prediction and judgment. He writes about the need to have a sense of two things:
- how different choices change the likelihood of different outcomes
- how desirable each of those outcomes is
Source: Harvard Business Review, January 22, 2018.
But how do you get better at either? Of the volumes published on this subject Fricke shares three rules that stand out. Following them will improve your ability to predict the effects of your choices and assess their desirability:
- Rule #1: Be less certain
- Rule #2: Ask “How often does that typically happen?”
- Rule #3: Think probabilistically; learn some basic probability
Also see: Time for some fresh air, Animal Health Digest, January 23, 2018.
INSIGHTS: Fricke’s summary is good guidance for animal health pros. Great decision makers don’t follow these rules only when facing a particularly difficult choice; they return to them all the time. They recognize that even seemingly easy decisions can be hard — and that they probably know less than they think.